Long Shot: The Prospects for a Conversion to Euro Pricing in Oil Markets

Abstract

Oil is currently bought and sold in US dollars on the major oil markets. Recent rhetoric indicates some exporters are considering supporting a conversion to euro pricing of oil. Yet, the dollar has a firm grip. A switch is unlikely in the short- to medium-term as it would be exceedingly difficult given the structure and inertia inherent in oil markets along with the euro's second tier status to the dollar. The turbulent politics of many oil exporting countries-especially Islamic ones-could spur a spiteful movemnt to end dollar pricing but the significant obstacles producers must overcome may be too great for now. However, both economic and non-economic political concerns as a sources of change become more probable as the time horizon is extended, allowing time for the euro to mature and achieve a greater stake in international financial markets.